Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Wizards MEM @ WSH

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

15-16  |  Road

112
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 6:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

6-23  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
WIZARDS
0%
GRIZZLIES --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Washington)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

38.2%

Wizards Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WSH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

MEM By 1-7 points

21.6%

MEM By 8-14 points

10.7%

WSH By 1-7 points

27.2%

WSH By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
117
MEMPHIS
120
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
108
MEMPHIS
115
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wizards Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wizards (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Wizards (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u240.0 Win
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim u240.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 MEM @ WSH 112 - 116
Dec 20, 2025 WSH @ MEM 130 - 122
Dec 8, 2024 MEM @ WSH 140 - 112
Nov 8, 2024 WSH @ MEM 104 - 128
Mar 12, 2024 WSH @ MEM 97 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +2.0%
Washington: 78.4% vs Memphis: 76.4%
Steals (L5) +39.5% more
Memphis: 9.9 vs Washington: 6.0
Turnovers (L5) +31.2% more
Memphis: 15.8 vs Washington: 10.9
Assists (L5) +19.9% more
Memphis: 30.9 vs Washington: 24.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 117.0 112
WSH Score 120.0 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 39.3 24.0 / 28.0
Assists 24.8 / 30.9 26.0 / 27.0
Blocks 6.2 / 6.8 12.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 49.3 42.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 78.4 / 76.4 96.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 47.0 / 43.9 54.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.0 / 9.9 9.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 15.8 19.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM Advantage
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MEM
WSH
MEM
ML
70% 112-49
57% 59-44
47% 39-44
50% 41-41
ATS
69% 111-49-1
63% 65-38
47% 39-44
50% 41-41
TTL
74% 119-41-1
70% 71-31-1
100% 83-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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