Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Lakers SAC @ LAL

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

8-23  |  Road

101
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 9:30 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

19-10  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
KINGS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Los Angeles)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

5.5%

Lakers Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

SAC By 1-7 points

4.0%

SAC By 8-14 points

0.8%

LAL By 1-7 points

13.7%

LAL By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
103
SACRAMENTO
119
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
115
SACRAMENTO
118
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (-12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u231.5 Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Sim u231.5 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 SAC @ LAL 104 - 128
Jan 12, 2026 LAL @ SAC 112 - 124
Dec 28, 2025 SAC @ LAL 101 - 125
Oct 26, 2025 LAL @ SAC 127 - 120
Dec 28, 2024 SAC @ LAL 122 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +9.4% more
Los Angeles: 14.5 vs Sacramento: 13.2
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Los Angeles: 47.9% vs Sacramento: 44.6%
Steals (L5) +42.9% more
Sacramento: 12.4 vs Los Angeles: 7.1
Blocks (L5) +25.8% more
Sacramento: 6.1 vs Los Angeles: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 103.0 101
LAL Score 119.0 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 36.7 39.0 / 28.0
Assists 21.2 / 27.4 25.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.5 / 6.1 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.9 / 44.6 53.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 67.4 / 76.4 89.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 37.1 / 47.1 41.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.1 / 12.4 14.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 13.2 16.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
SAC
LAL
SAC
ML
61% 68-43
55% 55-45
54% 49-42
61% 50-32
ATS
61% 67-43-1
54% 52-45-3
54% 49-42
61% 50-32
TTL
61% 66-43-2
58% 57-42-1
100% 91-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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