Home / NBA Projections NBA / Suns @ Pelicans PHX @ NO

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

17-13  |  Road

123
FINAL
Sat, Dec 27 • 7:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

8-24  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
SUNS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (New Orleans)
SunsPHX (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Suns Cover

34.5%

Pelicans Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

PHX By 1-7 points

20.1%

PHX By 8-14 points

9.3%

NO By 1-7 points

27.4%

NO By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
113
PHOENIX
117
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
108
PHOENIX
115
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pelicans (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u240.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim u240.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 NO @ PHX 116 - 118
Dec 27, 2025 PHX @ NO 123 - 114
Dec 26, 2025 PHX @ NO 115 - 108
Nov 10, 2025 NO @ PHX 98 - 121
Feb 28, 2025 NO @ PHX 108 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +42.6% more
Phoenix: 4.8 vs New Orleans: 2.7
Turnovers (L5) +13.9% more
Phoenix: 15.9 vs New Orleans: 13.7
Steals (L5) +11.3% more
Phoenix: 10.8 vs New Orleans: 9.6
Free Throw % (L5) +4.2%
Phoenix: 80.6% vs New Orleans: 76.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHX Score 113.0 123
NO Score 117.0 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.7 / 30.2 33.0 / 45.0
Assists 25.2 / 26.8 16.0 / 26.0
Blocks 2.7 / 4.8 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 49.2 44.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 76.4 / 80.6 88.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 43.6 / 43.2 43.0 / 55.0
Steals 9.6 / 10.8 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 15.9 13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
NO
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
PHX
NO
PHX
ML
62% 98-61
57% 60-45
58% 48-35
51% 45-43
ATS
68% 107-51-1
58% 59-43-3
58% 48-35
51% 45-43
TTL
75% 119-40
59% 61-42-2
100% 83-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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