Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Waves GONZ @ PEPP

GONZAGA

BULLDOGSGONZ

12-1  |  Road

96
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 8:00 PM ET
Firestone Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

PEPPERDINE

WAVESPEPP

5-8  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
WAVES
100%
BULLDOGS --
WAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
181.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.0
PEPPERDINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BulldogsGONZ (-3.5) 0 WavesPEPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

13.6%

Waves Cover

86.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PEPP +11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PEPP)

GONZ By 1-7 points

21.6%

GONZ By 8-14 points

27.4%

PEPP By 1-7 points

9.3%

PEPP By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
96
GONZAGA
85
PEPPERDINE
Simulated Score
67
GONZAGA
88
PEPPERDINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Waves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Waves (+29.5) Win
Proj Spread: +11.0
D
Sim Waves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 181.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 PEPP @ GONZ 60 - 84
Dec 28, 2025 GONZ @ PEPP 96 - 56
Feb 15, 2025 PEPP @ GONZ 55 - 107
Dec 30, 2024 GONZ @ PEPP 89 - 82
Jan 18, 2024 GONZ @ PEPP 86 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +42.3% more
Gonzaga: 8.2 vs Pepperdine: 4.7
Blocks (L5) +40.3% more
Gonzaga: 3.1 vs Pepperdine: 1.8
Assists (L5) +30.8% more
Gonzaga: 20.5 vs Pepperdine: 14.2
Rebounding (L5) +15.2% more
Gonzaga: 39.8 vs Pepperdine: 33.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GONZ Score 96.0 96
PEPP Score 85.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.3 / 42.7 26.0 / 45.0
Assists 14.2 / 20.5 11.0 / 21.0
Blocks 1.8 / 3.1 2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 52.0 34.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 79.1 / 73.8 65.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 33.7 / 39.8 31.0 / 44.0
Steals 4.7 / 8.2 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 9.4 14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
99%MONEY1%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GONZ Advantage
31-4-0 (88.6%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
PEPP
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GONZ Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
PEPP
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.0
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PEPP
GONZ
PEPP
GONZ
ML
62% 20-12
71% 25-10
69% 22-10
69% 20-9
ATS
56% 18-14
69% 24-11
69% 22-10
69% 20-9
TTL
50% 16-16
57% 20-15
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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