STANTON
ELKSSTN
0-0 | Road
62
UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
10-2 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
ELKS
100%
TRITONS
0%
ELKS
--
TRITONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-52.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +52.0 points (UC San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCSD -52.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)
STN By 1-7 points
0.0%
STN By 8-14 points
0.0%
UCSD By 1-7 points
0.0%
UCSD By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Stanton
43
STANTON
UC San Diego
95
UC SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Stanton
62
STANTON
UC San Diego
78
UC SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tritons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tritons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tritons (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -52.0
D
Sim
Tritons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 28, 2025
STN @ UCSD
62 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+186.0% more
UC San Diego: 2.2
vs
Stanton: 0.3
Assists (L5)
+104.6% more
UC San Diego: 15.0
vs
Stanton: 7.3
Rebounding (L5)
+48.5% more
UC San Diego: 37.1
vs
Stanton: 25.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.8%
UC San Diego: 49.1%
vs
Stanton: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STN Score
43.0
62
UCSD Score
95.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 30.7
34.0 / 47.0
Assists
15.0 / 7.3
20.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.2 / 0.3
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.1 / 42.3
44.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
65.8 / 65.3
64.0 / 91.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 25.0
40.0 / 32.0
Steals
8.2 / 7.7
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 19.7
9.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STN
--
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STN
--
UCSD
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
STN
--
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSD
STN
UCSD
STN
ML
56%
19-15
100%
2-0
65%
22-12
100%
2-0
ATS
50%
17-17
100%
2-0
65%
22-12
100%
2-0
TTL
62%
21-13
50%
1-1
100%
34-0
100%
2-0
