SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
11-2 | Road
78
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
LIONSLMU
9-4 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
0%
LIONS
100%
GAELS
--
LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Saint Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SMC -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)
SMC By 1-7 points
8.0%
SMC By 8-14 points
18.6%
LMU By 1-7 points
1.7%
LMU By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Mary's
84
SAINT MARY'S
Loyola Marymount
64
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Simulated Score
Saint Mary's
61
SAINT MARY'S
Loyola Marymount
72
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Gaels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lions
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Gaels (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 28, 2025
SMC @ LMU
78 - 73
Feb 27, 2025
SMC @ LMU
58 - 55
Jan 7, 2025
LMU @ SMC
56 - 81
Jan 27, 2024
LMU @ SMC
65 - 70
Jan 6, 2024
SMC @ LMU
68 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+21.8%
Saint Mary's: 83.6%
vs
Loyola Marymount: 61.8%
Rebounding (L5)
+9.6% more
Saint Mary's: 41.3
vs
Loyola Marymount: 37.4
Blocks (L5)
+105.4% more
Loyola Marymount: 6.5
vs
Saint Mary's: 3.2
Assists (L5)
+40.6% more
Loyola Marymount: 17.0
vs
Saint Mary's: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SMC Score
84.0
78
LMU Score
64.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.8 / 25.0
42.0 / 50.0
Assists
17.0 / 12.1
11.0 / 12.0
Blocks
6.5 / 3.2
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 39.9
50.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
61.8 / 83.6
64.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
37.4 / 41.3
27.0 / 31.0
Steals
8.1 / 5.8
1.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 11.7
6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
LMU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
LMU
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
LMU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LMU
SMC
LMU
SMC
ML
53%
17-15
56%
18-14
50%
16-16
82%
23-5
ATS
47%
15-17
62%
20-12
50%
16-16
83%
24-5
TTL
62%
20-12
53%
17-15
100%
32-0
100%
29-0
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