Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Quakers @ Patriots PENN @ GMU

PENNSYLVANIA

QUAKERSPENN

6-5  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 5:00 PM ET
EagleBank Arena
View Odds Details →

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

11-1  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
QUAKERS
100%
📊
PATRIOTS
0%
QUAKERS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
118.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
GEORGE MASON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (George Mason)
QuakersPENN (-3.5) 0 PatriotsGMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Quakers Cover

21.2%

Patriots Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GMU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GMU)

PENN By 1-7 points

13.7%

PENN By 8-14 points

4.8%

GMU By 1-7 points

25.3%

GMU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
55
PENNSYLVANIA
63
GEORGE MASON
Simulated Score
68
PENNSYLVANIA
72
GEORGE MASON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Patriots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 118.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 PENN @ GMU 79 - 83
Dec 22, 2024 PENN @ GMU 53 - 85
Nov 12, 2021 PENN @ GMU 66 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +54.0% more
George Mason: 4.7 vs Pennsylvania: 3.0
Steals (L5) +30.4% more
George Mason: 5.5 vs Pennsylvania: 4.3
Free Throw % (L5) +14.0%
George Mason: 77.4% vs Pennsylvania: 63.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
George Mason: 46.6% vs Pennsylvania: 42.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PENN Score 55.0 79
GMU Score 63.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 33.6 7.0 / 42.0
Assists 13.2 / 14.7 13.0 / 19.0
Blocks 4.7 / 3.0 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 42.6 57.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 77.4 / 63.4 50.0 / 53.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 37.6 41.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.5 / 4.3 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 12.0 7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PENN
--
GMU Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PENN
--
GMU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PENN
--
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GMU
PENN
GMU
PENN
ML
55% 18-15
53% 16-14
73% 24-9
76% 22-7
ATS
55% 18-15
63% 19-11
73% 24-9
76% 22-7
TTL
58% 19-14
70% 21-9
100% 33-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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