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COLUMBIA

LIONSCOLU

9-3  |  Road

90
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 2:00 PM ET
UNF Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTH FLORIDA

OSPREYSUNF

2-10  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
📊
OSPREYS
100%
LIONS --
OSPREYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
NORTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LionsCOLU (-3.5) 0 OspreysUNF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

21.2%

Ospreys Cover

78.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNF +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNF)

COLU By 1-7 points

25.3%

COLU By 8-14 points

26.2%

UNF By 1-7 points

13.7%

UNF By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
87
COLUMBIA
79
NORTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
72
COLUMBIA
78
NORTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ospreys Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ospreys (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Sim Ospreys (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o162.5 Win
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 COLU @ UNF 90 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +75.4% more
Columbia: 3.8 vs North Florida: 0.9
Rebounding (L5) +31.0% more
Columbia: 42.2 vs North Florida: 29.1
Assists (L5) +22.6% more
Columbia: 15.6 vs North Florida: 12.1
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Columbia: 45.0% vs North Florida: 40.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLU Score 87.0 90
UNF Score 79.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.5 / 30.9 38.0 / 45.0
Assists 12.1 / 15.6 14.0 / 18.0
Blocks 0.9 / 3.8 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.3 / 45.0 46.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 79.9 / 67.6 92.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 29.1 / 42.2 26.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.2 / 6.6 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 14.5 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLU Advantage
16-12-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
UNF
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLU
13-13-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
UNF Advantage
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
COLU
14-12-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: -1.1
UNF
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNF
COLU
UNF
COLU
ML
69% 22-10
44% 12-15
66% 21-11
56% 15-12
ATS
69% 22-10
59% 16-11
66% 21-11
56% 15-12
TTL
66% 21-11
74% 20-7
100% 32-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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