Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Warhawks @ Wildcats ULM @ KSU

UL MONROE

WARHAWKSULM

3-10  |  Road

85
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 2:00 PM ET
Bramlage Coliseum
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

8-4  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
WARHAWKS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
WARHAWKS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Kansas State)
WarhawksULM (-3.5) 0 WildcatsKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warhawks Cover

34.5%

Wildcats Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KSU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

ULM By 1-7 points

20.1%

ULM By 8-14 points

9.3%

KSU By 1-7 points

27.4%

KSU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
77
UL MONROE
81
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
61
UL MONROE
78
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+33.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u169.5 Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u169.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 ULM @ KSU 85 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +49.6% more
Kansas State: 8.0 vs UL Monroe: 5.4
Assists (L5) +39.6% more
Kansas State: 19.7 vs UL Monroe: 14.1
Blocks (L5) +39.4% more
Kansas State: 6.0 vs UL Monroe: 4.3
Rebounding (L5) +25.2% more
Kansas State: 41.7 vs UL Monroe: 33.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ULM Score 77.0 85
KSU Score 81.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.9 / 37.0 29.0 / 39.0
Assists 19.7 / 14.1 25.0 / 15.0
Blocks 6.0 / 4.3 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 51.2 / 40.0 47.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 75.1 75.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 41.7 / 33.3 43.0 / 30.0
Steals 8.0 / 5.4 8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 15.0 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
4-28-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
KSU Advantage
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0% Total +/-: +5.8
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
ULM
KSU
ULM
ML
59% 19-13
50% 16-16
69% 22-10
70% 21-9
ATS
62% 20-12
78% 25-7
69% 22-10
70% 21-9
TTL
47% 15-17
59% 19-13
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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