Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Heat IND @ MIA

INDIANA

PACERSIND

6-25  |  Road

116
FINAL
Sat, Dec 27 • 8:00 PM ET
Kaseya Center
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

HEATMIA

16-15  |  Home

142
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
📊
HEAT
0%
PACERS --
HEAT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Miami)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 HeatMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

34.5%

Heat Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

IND By 1-7 points

20.1%

IND By 8-14 points

9.3%

MIA By 1-7 points

27.4%

MIA By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
113
INDIANA
117
MIAMI
Simulated Score
108
INDIANA
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Heat Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Heat Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Heat (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Heat (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u231.5 Loss
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim u231.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 MIA @ IND 118 - 135
Jan 10, 2026 MIA @ IND 99 - 123
Dec 27, 2025 IND @ MIA 116 - 142
Feb 28, 2025 IND @ MIA 120 - 125
Jan 2, 2025 IND @ MIA 128 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +66.7% more
Miami: 10.4 vs Indiana: 6.3
Rebounding (L5) +19.7% more
Miami: 46.6 vs Indiana: 38.9
Free Throw % (L5) +6.5%
Miami: 83.4% vs Indiana: 77.0%
Blocks (L5) +35.2% more
Indiana: 3.8 vs Miami: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 113.0 116
MIA Score 117.0 142
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 32.7 39.0 / 32.0
Assists 24.8 / 24.2 33.0 / 30.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.8 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 44.1 51.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 83.4 / 77.0 95.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 46.6 / 38.9 49.0 / 45.0
Steals 10.4 / 6.3 17.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 12.9 11.0 / 26.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
MIA Advantage
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
IND
MIA
IND
ML
48% 46-50
48% 47-50
59% 48-34
54% 45-38
ATS
51% 49-47
59% 57-40
59% 48-34
54% 45-38
TTL
59% 57-39
54% 52-45
100% 82-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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