Home / NBA Projections NBA / Cavaliers @ Rockets CLE @ HOU

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

17-15  |  Road

100
FINAL
Sat, Dec 27 • 8:00 PM ET
Toyota Center (Houston)
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

18-10  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
CAVALIERS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Houston)
CavaliersCLE (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

46.0%

Rockets Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

CLE By 1-7 points

24.3%

CLE By 8-14 points

13.7%

HOU By 1-7 points

26.2%

HOU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
119
CLEVELAND
120
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
108
CLEVELAND
112
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o232.5 Loss
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 27, 2025 CLE @ HOU 100 - 117
Nov 19, 2025 HOU @ CLE 114 - 104
Jan 25, 2025 HOU @ CLE 135 - 131
Jan 22, 2025 CLE @ HOU 108 - 109
Mar 16, 2024 CLE @ HOU 103 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +138.3% more
Houston: 5.7 vs Cleveland: 2.4
Turnovers (L5) +15.7% more
Houston: 16.0 vs Cleveland: 13.8
Assists (L5) +19.9% more
Cleveland: 32.4 vs Houston: 26.0
Free Throw % (L5) +8.8%
Cleveland: 84.8% vs Houston: 76.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 119.0 100
HOU Score 120.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 41.5 46.0 / 31.0
Assists 26.0 / 32.4 27.0 / 23.0
Blocks 5.7 / 2.4 9.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 50.6 / 50.8 49.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 76.0 / 84.8 71.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 46.9 / 43.9 51.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.9 / 8.1 12.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 16.0 / 13.8 17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
HOU Advantage
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CLE
HOU
CLE
ML
61% 69-44
60% 69-46
59% 51-35
56% 55-44
ATS
62% 70-43
67% 75-37-3
59% 51-35
56% 55-44
TTL
51% 58-55
59% 68-47
100% 86-0
100% 99-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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