DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
22-8 | Road
126
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
17-14 | Home
127
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
MAGIC
0%
NUGGETS
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
203.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
DEN By 1-7 points
24.3%
DEN By 8-14 points
13.7%
ORL By 1-7 points
26.2%
ORL By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
101
DENVER
Orlando
102
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Denver
105
DENVER
Orlando
112
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Magic
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Magic
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Magic (+4)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Magic (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u235.5
Loss
Proj Total: 203.0
D
Sim
u235.5
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 27, 2025
DEN @ ORL
126 - 127
Dec 18, 2025
ORL @ DEN
115 - 126
Feb 6, 2025
ORL @ DEN
90 - 112
Jan 19, 2025
DEN @ ORL
113 - 100
Jan 5, 2024
ORL @ DEN
122 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+61.5% more
Orlando: 6.0
vs
Denver: 3.7
Assists (L5)
+23.1% more
Denver: 32.4
vs
Orlando: 24.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.6%
Denver: 44.5%
vs
Orlando: 33.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+10.3% more
Denver: 14.2
vs
Orlando: 12.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
101.0
126
ORL Score
102.0
127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.9 / 44.5
34.0 / 38.0
Assists
24.9 / 32.4
32.0 / 27.0
Blocks
6.0 / 3.7
0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 50.5
52.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
80.8 / 87.5
68.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
43.4 / 41.9
35.0 / 49.0
Steals
8.0 / 7.4
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 14.2
6.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
ORL
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
DEN
ORL
DEN
ML
61%
65-42
54%
57-48
56%
51-40
55%
47-39
ATS
64%
68-38-1
63%
65-38-2
56%
51-40
55%
47-39
TTL
57%
61-46
54%
56-48-1
100%
91-0
100%
86-0
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