Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Kings DAL @ SAC

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

12-20  |  Road

107
FINAL
Sat, Dec 27 • 5:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

7-23  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
MAVERICKS --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Sacramento)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

30.9%

Kings Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

DAL By 1-7 points

18.6%

DAL By 8-14 points

8.0%

SAC By 1-7 points

27.2%

SAC By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
117
DALLAS
122
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
112
DALLAS
118
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Kings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o233.0 Loss
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim u233.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 SAC @ DAL 130 - 121
Jan 6, 2026 DAL @ SAC 100 - 98
Dec 27, 2025 DAL @ SAC 107 - 113
Apr 16, 2025 DAL @ SAC 120 - 106
Mar 3, 2025 SAC @ DAL 122 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +57.1% more
Sacramento: 10.7 vs Dallas: 6.8
Free Throw % (L5) +1.6%
Sacramento: 77.1% vs Dallas: 75.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.5%
Sacramento: 32.5% vs Dallas: 31.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.1%
Dallas: 52.5% vs Sacramento: 45.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 117.0 107
SAC Score 122.0 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 31.0 45.0 / 48.0
Assists 25.2 / 25.2 32.0 / 23.0
Blocks 5.6 / 5.3 7.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 52.5 43.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 75.5 75.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 45.6 / 43.6 50.0 / 51.0
Steals 10.7 / 6.8 16.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 13.3 11.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
DAL
SAC
DAL
ML
55% 55-45
62% 63-39
61% 50-32
54% 44-37
ATS
54% 52-45-3
67% 68-34
61% 50-32
54% 44-37
TTL
58% 57-42-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 82-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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