Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Wizards TOR @ WSH

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

18-13  |  Road

117
FINAL
Fri, Dec 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

5-23  |  Home

138
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
WIZARDS
0%
RAPTORS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Washington)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

27.4%

Wizards Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WSH -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

TOR By 1-7 points

16.9%

TOR By 8-14 points

6.8%

WSH By 1-7 points

26.8%

WSH By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
105
TORONTO
111
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
108
TORONTO
115
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wizards Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wizards (+8) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Wizards (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u226.0 Loss
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Sim u226.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 TOR @ WSH 134 - 125
Dec 26, 2025 TOR @ WSH 117 - 138
Nov 21, 2025 WSH @ TOR 110 - 140
Oct 12, 2025 TOR @ WSH 113 - 112
Mar 24, 2025 TOR @ WSH 112 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +15.5% more
Washington: 5.8 vs Toronto: 5.0
Rebounding (L5) +9.1% more
Washington: 47.5 vs Toronto: 43.6
Turnovers (L5) +41.1% more
Toronto: 15.9 vs Washington: 9.3
Steals (L5) +39.4% more
Toronto: 8.2 vs Washington: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 105.0 117
WSH Score 111.0 138
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.4 / 34.4 45.0 / 33.0
Assists 24.2 / 28.0 26.0 / 26.0
Blocks 5.8 / 5.0 7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 44.3 59.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 76.1 / 80.7 83.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 47.5 / 43.6 46.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.0 / 8.2 8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 15.9 14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
TOR
WSH
TOR
ML
70% 112-49
55% 57-47
47% 39-44
55% 48-39
ATS
69% 111-49-1
61% 62-40-2
47% 39-44
55% 48-39
TTL
74% 119-41-1
60% 62-42
100% 83-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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