Home / NBA Projections NBA / Celtics @ Pacers BOS @ IND

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

18-11  |  Road

140
FINAL
Fri, Dec 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

6-24  |  Home

122
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
📊
PACERS
0%
CELTICS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Indiana)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

46.0%

Pacers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

BOS By 1-7 points

24.3%

BOS By 8-14 points

13.7%

IND By 1-7 points

26.2%

IND By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
113
BOSTON
114
INDIANA
Simulated Score
112
BOSTON
118
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pacers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pacers (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o222.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim u222.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 IND @ BOS 104 - 119
Jan 12, 2026 BOS @ IND 96 - 98
Dec 26, 2025 BOS @ IND 140 - 122
Dec 22, 2025 IND @ BOS 95 - 103
Dec 29, 2024 IND @ BOS 123 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +22.9% more
Boston: 5.5 vs Indiana: 4.3
Rebounding (L5) +13.2% more
Boston: 47.1 vs Indiana: 40.9
Steals (L5) +10.0% more
Boston: 7.1 vs Indiana: 6.4
Free Throw % (L5) +5.8%
Boston: 81.3% vs Indiana: 75.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 113.0 140
IND Score 114.0 122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.5 / 34.3 41.0 / 51.0
Assists 21.8 / 21.2 29.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.3 / 5.5 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.7 / 46.5 49.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 75.4 / 81.3 80.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 40.9 / 47.1 35.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.1 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 13.0 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
BOS
IND
BOS
ML
48% 47-50
57% 61-46
54% 45-38
53% 47-41
ATS
59% 57-40
59% 61-43-3
54% 45-38
53% 47-41
TTL
54% 52-45
56% 60-47
100% 83-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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