MIAMI
HEATMIA
15-15 | Road
126
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
15-16 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
HAWKS
100%
HEAT
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
27.4%
MIA By 8-14 points
21.6%
ATL By 1-7 points
20.1%
ATL By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
117
MIAMI
Atlanta
113
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Miami
108
MIAMI
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-3)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u250.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim
u250.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
ATL @ MIA
117 - 143
Feb 20, 2026
MIA @ ATL
128 - 97
Feb 3, 2026
ATL @ MIA
127 - 115
Dec 26, 2025
MIA @ ATL
126 - 111
Oct 13, 2025
MIA @ ATL
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+10.1% more
Miami: 43.8
vs
Atlanta: 39.4
Steals (L5)
+9.4% more
Miami: 8.6
vs
Atlanta: 7.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.8%
Miami: 78.2%
vs
Atlanta: 75.3%
Blocks (L5)
+56.8% more
Atlanta: 4.3
vs
Miami: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
117.0
126
ATL Score
113.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.5 / 34.8
33.0 / 31.0
Assists
34.5 / 22.8
26.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.3 / 2.7
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 43.0
47.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
75.3 / 78.2
90.0 / 94.0
Rebounding
39.4 / 43.8
42.0 / 52.0
Steals
7.8 / 8.6
6.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 14.5
21.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIA
ATL
MIA
ML
50%
52-52
48%
46-50
55%
48-40
59%
48-34
ATS
53%
55-48-1
51%
49-47
55%
48-40
59%
48-34
TTL
53%
55-48-1
59%
57-39
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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