Home / NBA Projections NBA / Suns @ Pelicans PHX @ NO

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

16-13  |  Road

115
FINAL
Fri, Dec 26 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

8-23  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
SUNS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (New Orleans)
SunsPHX (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Suns Cover

34.5%

Pelicans Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

PHX By 1-7 points

20.1%

PHX By 8-14 points

9.3%

NO By 1-7 points

27.4%

NO By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
113
PHOENIX
117
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
112
PHOENIX
118
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pelicans (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u241.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim u241.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 NO @ PHX 116 - 118
Dec 27, 2025 PHX @ NO 123 - 114
Dec 26, 2025 PHX @ NO 115 - 108
Nov 10, 2025 NO @ PHX 98 - 121
Feb 28, 2025 NO @ PHX 108 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +19.7% more
New Orleans: 46.3 vs Phoenix: 38.7
Free Throw % (L5) +1.7%
New Orleans: 84.5% vs Phoenix: 82.8%
Blocks (L5) +39.6% more
Phoenix: 5.2 vs New Orleans: 3.1
Steals (L5) +20.0% more
Phoenix: 11.7 vs New Orleans: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHX Score 113.0 115
NO Score 117.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 35.3 20.0 / 20.0
Assists 26.8 / 27.1 22.0 / 26.0
Blocks 3.1 / 5.2 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 49.9 44.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 84.5 / 82.8 60.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 46.3 / 38.7 38.0 / 52.0
Steals 9.3 / 11.7 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 14.9 12.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
NO
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
PHX
NO
PHX
ML
62% 98-61
57% 60-45
58% 48-35
51% 45-43
ATS
68% 107-51-1
58% 59-43-3
58% 48-35
51% 45-43
TTL
75% 119-40
59% 61-42-2
100% 83-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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