WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
19-13-5 | Road
4
NEW JERSEY
DEVILSNJ
20-16-1 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Jake Allen
#34 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 2.81 | 0.921 | -- |
| Jake Allen | None-None | 3.76 | 0.879 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.81 Ldr
GAA
3.76
0.921 Ldr
Save %
0.879
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
DEVILS
100%
CAPITALS
--
DEVILS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
12.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
37.2%
NJ By 1 goal
2.8%
NJ By 2-3 goals
1.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
New Jersey
1
NEW JERSEY
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
New Jersey
4
NEW JERSEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Devils
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Capitals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
D
Sim
Devils (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
WSH @ NJ
3 - 7
Mar 20, 2026
NJ @ WSH
1 - 2
Dec 27, 2025
WSH @ NJ
4 - 3
Nov 15, 2025
NJ @ WSH
3 - 2
Sep 28, 2025
WSH @ NJ
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+11.8%
Washington: 13.5%
vs
New Jersey: 1.7%
Faceoff % (L5)
+8.8%
New Jersey: 56.2%
vs
Washington: 47.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.0
4
NJ Score
1.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.8 / 14.5
10.0 / 21.0
Faceoff %
56.2 / 47.4
33.9 / 66.1
Hits
16.3 / 16.5
17.0 / 14.0
Power Play %
1.7 / 13.5
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.7 / 30.5
38.0 / 33.0
Takeaways
3.0 / 2.8
8.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NJ
WSH
NJ
WSH
ML
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-3
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
TTL
0%
0-2-1
33%
1-2
50%
1-1-1
33%
1-2
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