TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
20-13-3 | Road
4
FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
20-14-2 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Niko Mikkola
#77 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 2.01 | 0.923 | -- |
| Niko Mikkola | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.01
GAA
--
0.923
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
0%
PANTHERS
100%
LIGHTNING
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TB -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1 goal
6.6%
TB By 2-3 goals
29.6%
FLA By 1 goal
0.9%
FLA By 2-3 goals
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Florida
1
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Florida
4
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lightning
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lightning (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
FLA @ TB
1 - 6
Dec 27, 2025
TB @ FLA
4 - 2
Dec 15, 2025
FLA @ TB
5 - 2
Nov 15, 2025
TB @ FLA
3 - 1
Oct 4, 2025
TB @ FLA
0 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+10.6%
Tampa Bay: 33.0%
vs
Florida: 22.4%
Faceoff % (L5)
+5.3%
Tampa Bay: 50.2%
vs
Florida: 44.9%
Hits (L5)
+56.9% more
Florida: 27.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 17.7
Blocked Shots (L5)
+28.6% more
Florida: 14.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
5.0
4
FLA Score
1.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.2 / 11.0
9.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
44.9 / 50.2
52.0 / 48.0
Hits
27.7 / 17.7
27.0 / 32.0
Power Play %
22.4 / 33.0
9.1 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.2 / 25.2
26.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
4.3 / 3.9
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
TB
FLA
TB
ML
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
TTL
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
0%
0-4
100%
3-0
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