SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
22-7 | Road
117
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
26-4 | Home
102
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
THUNDER
100%
SPURS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
SA By 1-7 points
26.2%
SA By 8-14 points
25.3%
OKC By 1-7 points
15.3%
OKC By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
116
SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City
109
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
San Antonio
112
SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City
120
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (+10)
Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u235.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim
u235.5
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 30, 2026
SA @ OKC
111 - 103
May 28, 2026
OKC @ SA
91 - 118
May 26, 2026
SA @ OKC
114 - 127
May 24, 2026
OKC @ SA
82 - 103
May 22, 2026
OKC @ SA
123 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+24.1% more
San Antonio: 29.7
vs
Oklahoma City: 22.5
Rebounding (L5)
+10.0% more
San Antonio: 47.4
vs
Oklahoma City: 42.7
Blocks (L5)
+9.0% more
San Antonio: 4.4
vs
Oklahoma City: 4.0
Steals (L5)
+29.3% more
Oklahoma City: 9.8
vs
San Antonio: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
116.0
117
OKC Score
109.0
102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.3 / 38.0
25.0 / 38.0
Assists
22.5 / 29.7
23.0 / 20.0
Blocks
4.0 / 4.4
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 49.7
39.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
85.6 / 75.7
68.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
42.7 / 47.4
48.0 / 49.0
Steals
9.8 / 7.6
7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 11.4
7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
SA
OKC
SA
ML
70%
80-34
60%
111-73
48%
46-49
58%
61-44
ATS
73%
83-30-1
58%
107-76-1
48%
46-49
58%
61-44
TTL
67%
76-38
74%
134-47-3
100%
95-0
100%
105-0
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