Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Lakers HOU @ LAL

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

17-10  |  Road

119
FINAL
Thu, Dec 25 • 8:00 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

19-9  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
ROCKETS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

46.0%

Lakers Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

HOU By 1-7 points

26.2%

HOU By 8-14 points

16.9%

LAL By 1-7 points

24.3%

LAL By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
120
HOUSTON
119
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
112
HOUSTON
115
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o232.0 Loss
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim u232.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 1, 2026 LAL @ HOU 98 - 78
Apr 29, 2026 HOU @ LAL 99 - 93
Apr 26, 2026 LAL @ HOU 96 - 115
Apr 24, 2026 LAL @ HOU 112 - 108
Apr 21, 2026 HOU @ LAL 94 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +24.0% more
Houston: 5.6 vs Los Angeles: 4.2
Assists (L5) +17.0% more
Houston: 26.9 vs Los Angeles: 22.4
Turnovers (L5) +14.1% more
Houston: 16.0 vs Los Angeles: 13.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.5%
Houston: 38.5% vs Los Angeles: 30.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 120.0 119
LAL Score 119.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.9 / 38.5 37.0 / 33.0
Assists 22.4 / 26.9 19.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.2 / 5.6 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 49.4 51.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 69.1 / 74.5 64.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 43.1 / 46.3 25.0 / 48.0
Steals 7.2 / 6.8 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 16.0 16.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
HOU
LAL
HOU
ML
61% 68-43
61% 69-44
54% 49-42
59% 51-35
ATS
61% 67-43-1
62% 70-43
54% 49-42
59% 51-35
TTL
61% 66-43-2
51% 58-55
100% 91-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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