Home / NFL Projections NFL / Rams @ Falcons LAR @ ATL

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

11-4  |  Road

24
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 8:15 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

6-9  |  Home

27
Key Game
Ethan Evans
KEY GAME

Ethan Evans

#42 | Punter
@
Dylan Drummond
KEY GAME

Dylan Drummond

#80 | Wide Receiver
Player
Ethan Evans None-None
Dylan Drummond None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
RAMS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Los Angeles)
RamsLAR (-3.5) 0 FalconsATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

84.1%

Falcons Cover

15.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LAR -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAR)

LAR By 1-6 points

12.9%

LAR By 7-13 points

19.0%

ATL By 1-6 points

7.9%

ATL By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
31
LOS ANGELES
17
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
17
LOS ANGELES
24
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rams Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rams (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
D
Sim u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 29, 2025 LAR @ ATL 24 - 27
Sep 18, 2022 ATL @ LAR 27 - 31
Oct 20, 2019 LAR @ ATL 37 - 10
Jan 6, 2018 ATL @ LAR 26 - 13
Dec 11, 2016 ATL @ LAR 42 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +34.0% more
Los Angeles: 284.3 vs Atlanta: 187.6
First Downs (L5) +29.5% more
Los Angeles: 26.2 vs Atlanta: 18.5
Total Yards (L5) +29.1% more
Los Angeles: 445.9 vs Atlanta: 316.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +26.5% more
Los Angeles: 7.0 vs Atlanta: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAR Score 31.0 24
ATL Score 17.0 27
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
LAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
LAR
ATL
LAR
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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