Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bears @ 49ers CHI @ SF

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

11-4  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 8:20 PM ET
Levi's Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

11-4  |  Home

42
Key Game
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
@
Eddy Pineiro
KEY GAME

Eddy Pineiro

#18 | Place kicker
Player
Tory Taylor None-None
Eddy Pineiro None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
49ERS
100%
BEARS --
49ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Chicago)
BearsCHI (-3.5) 0 49ersSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

71.6%

49ers Cover

28.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CHI -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

CHI By 1-6 points

16.1%

CHI By 7-13 points

19.5%

SF By 1-6 points

12.2%

SF By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
28
CHICAGO
20
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
17
CHICAGO
27
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 49ers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim 49ers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
D
Sim u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 CHI @ SF 38 - 42
Dec 8, 2024 CHI @ SF 13 - 38
Sep 11, 2022 SF @ CHI 10 - 19
Oct 31, 2021 SF @ CHI 33 - 22
Dec 23, 2018 CHI @ SF 14 - 9
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.2% more
Chicago: 162.1 vs San Francisco: 106.6
Total Yards (L5) +15.3% more
Chicago: 361.7 vs San Francisco: 306.4
Turnovers (L5) +48.0% more
San Francisco: 1.1 vs Chicago: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 28.0 38
SF Score 20.0 42
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
SF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
CHI
SF
CHI
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
TTL
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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