Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ Jets NE @ NYJ

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

12-3  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 1:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

3-12  |  Home

10
Key Game
Bryce Baringer
KEY GAME

Bryce Baringer

#17 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Jarius Monroe

#25 | Safety
Player
Bryce Baringer None-None
Jarius Monroe None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
0%
📊
JETS
100%
PATRIOTS --
JETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (New England)
PatriotsNE (-3.5) 0 JetsNYJ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

87.3%

Jets Cover

12.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NE -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

NE By 1-6 points

11.5%

NE By 7-13 points

18.0%

NYJ By 1-6 points

6.5%

NYJ By 7-13 points

3.6%

AI Model Projected Score
26
NEW ENGLAND
10
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
20
NEW ENGLAND
24
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Patriots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jets Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Patriots (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Jets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 36.0
D
Sim u42.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 NE @ NYJ 42 - 10
Nov 13, 2025 NYJ @ NE 14 - 27
Oct 27, 2024 NYJ @ NE 22 - 25
Sep 19, 2024 NE @ NYJ 3 - 24
Jan 7, 2024 NYJ @ NE 17 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +44.5% more
New England: 267.8 vs New York: 148.5
Total Yards (L5) +34.8% more
New England: 382.5 vs New York: 249.3
First Downs (L5) +30.9% more
New England: 21.0 vs New York: 14.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +30.5% more
New England: 6.1 vs New York: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 26.0 42
NYJ Score 10.0 10
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
NYJ
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYJ
NE
NYJ
NE
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
33% 1-2-1
33% 1-2-1
33% 1-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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