Home / NFL Projections NFL / Buccaneers @ Dolphins TB @ MIA

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

7-8  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 1:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

6-9  |  Home

20
Key Game
Ifeatu Melifonwu
KEY GAME

Ifeatu Melifonwu

#5 | Safety
@
Riley Patterson
KEY GAME

Riley Patterson

#47 | Place kicker
Player
Ifeatu Melifonwu None-None
Riley Patterson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
100%
📊
DOLPHINS
0%
BUCCANEERS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
BuccaneersTB (-3.5) 0 DolphinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

47.2%

Dolphins Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

TB By 1-6 points

16.1%

TB By 7-13 points

14.6%

MIA By 1-6 points

16.7%

MIA By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
16
TAMPA BAY
17
MIAMI
Simulated Score
27
TAMPA BAY
24
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dolphins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dolphins (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 33.0
D
Sim u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 TB @ MIA 17 - 20
Oct 10, 2021 MIA @ TB 17 - 45
Nov 19, 2017 TB @ MIA 30 - 20
Nov 11, 2013 MIA @ TB 19 - 22
Nov 15, 2009 TB @ MIA 23 - 25
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.7% more
Miami: 181.1 vs Tampa Bay: 137.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +23.3% more
Miami: 5.6 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
Total Yards (L5) +13.4% more
Miami: 328.9 vs Tampa Bay: 290.0
First Downs (L5) +13.1% more
Miami: 19.5 vs Tampa Bay: 17.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 16.0 17
MIA Score 17.0 20
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
MIA Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
TB
MIA
TB
ML
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
100% 3-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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