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JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

11-4  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 1:00 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

8-7  |  Home

17
Key Game
Ameer Abdullah
KEY GAME

Ameer Abdullah

#20 | Running Back
@
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
Player
Ameer Abdullah None-None
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
0%
📊
COLTS
100%
JAGUARS --
COLTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Jacksonville)
JaguarsJAX (-3.5) 0 ColtsIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

97.3%

Colts Cover

2.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JAX -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

JAX By 1-6 points

4.2%

JAX By 7-13 points

9.6%

IND By 1-6 points

1.6%

IND By 7-13 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
30
JACKSONVILLE
3
INDIANAPOLIS
Simulated Score
23
JACKSONVILLE
27
INDIANAPOLIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jaguars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colts Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jaguars (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Colts (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u49.0 Win
Proj Total: 33.0
D
Sim u49.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 JAX @ IND 23 - 17
Dec 7, 2025 IND @ JAX 19 - 36
Jan 5, 2025 JAX @ IND 23 - 26
Oct 6, 2024 IND @ JAX 34 - 37
Oct 15, 2023 IND @ JAX 20 - 37
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.0% more
Indianapolis: 1.7 vs Jacksonville: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 30.0 23
IND Score 3.0 17
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
IND
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
JAX
IND
JAX
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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