Home / NFL Projections NFL / Saints @ Titans NO @ TEN

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

5-10  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 1:00 PM ET
Nissan Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

3-12  |  Home

26
Key Game
Charlie Smyth
KEY GAME

Charlie Smyth

#39 | Place kicker
@
Truman Jones
KEY GAME

Truman Jones

#56 | Defensive End
Player
Charlie Smyth None-None
Truman Jones None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
100%
📊
TITANS
0%
SAINTS --
TITANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tennessee)
SaintsNO (-3.5) 0 TitansTEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

47.2%

Titans Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TEN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEN)

NO By 1-6 points

16.1%

NO By 7-13 points

14.6%

TEN By 1-6 points

16.7%

TEN By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
20
NEW ORLEANS
21
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
20
NEW ORLEANS
24
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Titans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Titans Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Titans (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Titans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o39.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim u39.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 NO @ TEN 34 - 26
Sep 10, 2023 TEN @ NO 15 - 16
Nov 14, 2021 NO @ TEN 21 - 23
Dec 22, 2019 NO @ TEN 38 - 28
Nov 8, 2015 TEN @ NO 34 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.9% more
New Orleans: 1.6 vs Tennessee: 1.1
First Downs (L5) +21.5% more
New Orleans: 17.5 vs Tennessee: 13.8
Net Passing Yards (L5) +19.6% more
New Orleans: 184.6 vs Tennessee: 148.4
Total Yards (L5) +10.3% more
New Orleans: 285.7 vs Tennessee: 256.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 20.0 34
TEN Score 21.0 26
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
TEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEN
NO
TEN
NO
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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