Home / NFL Projections NFL / Steelers @ Browns PIT @ CLE

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

9-6  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 1:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

3-12  |  Home

13
Key Game
Rayshawn Jenkins
KEY GAME

Rayshawn Jenkins

#20 | Safety
@
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
Player
Rayshawn Jenkins None-None
Corey Bojorquez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
0%
📊
BROWNS
100%
STEELERS --
BROWNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
30.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Pittsburgh)
SteelersPIT (-3.5) 0 BrownsCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

76.2%

Browns Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PIT -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-6 points

15.3%

PIT By 7-13 points

19.7%

CLE By 1-6 points

10.7%

CLE By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20
PITTSBURGH
10
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
20
PITTSBURGH
24
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Steelers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Browns Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Steelers (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Browns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u35.5 Win
Proj Total: 30.0
D
Sim u35.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 1, 2026 PIT @ CLE 24 - 27
Dec 28, 2025 PIT @ CLE 6 - 13
Oct 12, 2025 CLE @ PIT 9 - 23
Dec 8, 2024 CLE @ PIT 14 - 27
Nov 21, 2024 PIT @ CLE 19 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.4 vs Cleveland: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +54.2% more
Cleveland: 1.7 vs Pittsburgh: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.2% more
Cleveland: 92.8 vs Pittsburgh: 78.5
First Downs (L5) +12.1% more
Cleveland: 16.8 vs Pittsburgh: 15.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 20.0 6
CLE Score 10.0 13
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
PIT
CLE
PIT
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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