Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cardinals @ Bengals ARI @ CIN

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

3-12  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 1:00 PM ET
Paycor Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

5-10  |  Home

37
Key Game
Chad Ryland
KEY GAME

Chad Ryland

#38 | Place kicker
@
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
Player
Chad Ryland None-None
Ryan Rehkow None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
BENGALS
0%
CARDINALS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Cincinnati)
CardinalsARI (-3.5) 0 BengalsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

30.9%

Bengals Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CIN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

ARI By 1-6 points

12.9%

ARI By 7-13 points

9.6%

CIN By 1-6 points

16.5%

CIN By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20
ARIZONA
27
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
24
ARIZONA
27
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bengals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bengals Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bengals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Bengals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 ARI @ CIN 14 - 37
Oct 8, 2023 CIN @ ARI 34 - 20
Oct 6, 2019 ARI @ CIN 26 - 23
Nov 22, 2015 CIN @ ARI 31 - 34
Dec 24, 2011 ARI @ CIN 16 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.6% more
Cincinnati: 96.1 vs Arizona: 73.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.5 vs Arizona: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +15.2% more
Cincinnati: 1.5 vs Arizona: 1.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +8.9% more
Arizona: 280.6 vs Cincinnati: 255.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 20.0 14
CIN Score 27.0 37
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
CIN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ARI
CIN
ARI
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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