Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Chargers HOU @ LAC

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

10-5  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Dec 27 • 4:30 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

11-4  |  Home

16
Key Game
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
@
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
Player
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
JK Scott None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
CHARGERS
100%
TEXANS --
CHARGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Houston)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 ChargersLAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

82.3%

Chargers Cover

17.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

13.5%

HOU By 7-13 points

19.3%

LAC By 1-6 points

8.6%

LAC By 7-13 points

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
27
HOUSTON
14
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
24
HOUSTON
27
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chargers Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (-1) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Chargers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u41.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim u41.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 27, 2025 HOU @ LAC 20 - 16
Jan 11, 2025 LAC @ HOU 12 - 32
Oct 2, 2022 LAC @ HOU 34 - 24
Dec 26, 2021 LAC @ HOU 29 - 41
Sep 22, 2019 HOU @ LAC 27 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +29.7% more
Houston: 213.8 vs Los Angeles: 150.2
Turnovers (L5) +120.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.6 vs Houston: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.3% more
Los Angeles: 143.6 vs Houston: 97.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 27.0 20
LAC Score 14.0 16
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
HOU
LAC
HOU
ML
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
33% 1-2-1
0% 0-4
0% 0-3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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