Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Chiefs DEN @ KC

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

12-3  |  Road

20
FINAL
Thu, Dec 25 • 8:15 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

6-9  |  Home

13
Key Game
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
100%
📊
CHIEFS
0%
BRONCOS --
CHIEFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
BroncosDEN (-3.5) 0 ChiefsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

47.2%

Chiefs Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

DEN By 1-6 points

16.1%

DEN By 7-13 points

14.6%

KC By 1-6 points

16.7%

KC By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
20
DENVER
21
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
17
DENVER
28
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chiefs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chiefs Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chiefs (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Chiefs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o37.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim u37.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 14, 2026 DEN @ KC 10 - 31
Dec 25, 2025 DEN @ KC 20 - 13
Nov 16, 2025 KC @ DEN 19 - 22
Jan 5, 2025 KC @ DEN 0 - 38
Nov 10, 2024 DEN @ KC 14 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +93.0% more
Kansas City: 1.6 vs Denver: 0.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Denver: 0.5 vs Kansas City: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 20.0 20
KC Score 21.0 13
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
DEN
KC
DEN
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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