Home / NFL Projections NFL / Lions @ Vikings DET @ MIN

DETROIT

LIONSDET

8-7  |  Road

10
FINAL
Thu, Dec 25 • 4:30 PM ET
U.S. Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

7-8  |  Home

23
Key Game
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
@
Will Reichard
KEY GAME

Will Reichard

#16 | Place kicker
Player
Jack Fox None-None
Will Reichard None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
📊
VIKINGS
100%
LIONS --
VIKINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LionsDET (-3.5) 0 VikingsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

33.4%

Vikings Cover

66.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIN +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

DET By 1-6 points

16.7%

DET By 7-13 points

19.0%

MIN By 1-6 points

13.5%

MIN By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
27
DETROIT
21
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
23
DETROIT
27
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vikings (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim Vikings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o45.0 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
D
Sim u45.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 25, 2025 DET @ MIN 10 - 23
Nov 2, 2025 MIN @ DET 27 - 24
Jan 5, 2025 MIN @ DET 9 - 31
Oct 20, 2024 DET @ MIN 31 - 29
Jan 7, 2024 MIN @ DET 20 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +49.4% more
Detroit: 264.5 vs Minnesota: 133.9
Total Yards (L5) +37.8% more
Detroit: 399.5 vs Minnesota: 248.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +33.5% more
Detroit: 6.6 vs Minnesota: 4.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.1% more
Detroit: 135.1 vs Minnesota: 114.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 27.0 10
MIN Score 21.0 23
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DET
MIN
DET
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0
67% 2-1-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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