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DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

6-8-1  |  Road

30
FINAL
Thu, Dec 25 • 1:00 PM ET
Northwest Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

4-11  |  Home

23
Key Game
Von Miller
KEY GAME

Von Miller

#40 | Linebacker
@
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
Player
Von Miller None-None
Tress Way None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
0%
📊
COMMANDERS
100%
COWBOYS --
COMMANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Dallas)
CowboysDAL (-3.5) 0 CommandersWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

93.3%

Commanders Cover

6.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DAL -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-6 points

7.9%

DAL By 7-13 points

14.6%

WSH By 1-6 points

3.8%

WSH By 7-13 points

1.8%

AI Model Projected Score
31
DALLAS
10
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
20
DALLAS
27
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cowboys Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commanders Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cowboys (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Commanders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 WSH @ DAL 20 - 37
Dec 25, 2025 DAL @ WSH 30 - 23
Oct 19, 2025 WSH @ DAL 22 - 44
Jan 5, 2025 WSH @ DAL 23 - 19
Nov 24, 2024 DAL @ WSH 34 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +39.3% more
Dallas: 304.6 vs Washington: 184.8
Total Yards (L5) +24.0% more
Dallas: 418.6 vs Washington: 318.1
First Downs (L5) +20.6% more
Dallas: 23.9 vs Washington: 18.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +13.7% more
Dallas: 6.1 vs Washington: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 31.0 30
WSH Score 10.0 23
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
DAL
WSH
DAL
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
67% 2-1-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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