OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
26-3 | Road
110
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
21-7 | Home
130
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
SPURS
0%
THUNDER
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
OKC By 1-7 points
15.3%
OKC By 8-14 points
5.8%
SA By 1-7 points
26.2%
SA By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
109
OKLAHOMA CITY
San Antonio
116
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
119
OKLAHOMA CITY
San Antonio
112
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Thunder (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u233.0
Loss
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim
u233.0
Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 30, 2026
SA @ OKC
111 - 103
May 28, 2026
OKC @ SA
91 - 118
May 26, 2026
SA @ OKC
114 - 127
May 24, 2026
OKC @ SA
82 - 103
May 22, 2026
OKC @ SA
123 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+23.5% more
San Antonio: 27.5
vs
Oklahoma City: 22.3
Rebounding (L5)
+17.5% more
San Antonio: 54.1
vs
Oklahoma City: 46.0
Steals (L5)
+47.8% more
Oklahoma City: 12.1
vs
San Antonio: 6.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.4%
Oklahoma City: 85.4%
vs
San Antonio: 76.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
109.0
110
SA Score
116.0
130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 36.0
44.0 / 40.0
Assists
27.5 / 22.3
34.0 / 23.0
Blocks
5.2 / 5.6
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 46.9
57.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
76.1 / 85.4
75.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
54.1 / 46.0
34.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.3 / 12.1
10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 12.4
9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
SA
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
OKC
SA
OKC
ML
60%
111-73
70%
80-34
58%
61-44
48%
46-49
ATS
58%
107-76-1
73%
83-30-1
58%
61-44
48%
46-49
TTL
74%
134-47-3
67%
76-38
100%
105-0
100%
95-0
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