Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Lions MORG @ LMU

MORGAN STATE

BEARSMORG

2-10  |  Road

56
FINAL
Tue, Dec 23 • 6:00 PM ET
Gersten Pavilion
View Odds Details →

LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

LIONSLMU

8-4  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
LIONS
0%
BEARS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Loyola Marymount)
BearsMORG (-3.5) 0 LionsLMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

4.5%

Lions Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LMU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LMU)

MORG By 1-7 points

3.3%

MORG By 8-14 points

0.6%

LMU By 1-7 points

12.2%

LMU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
65
MORGAN STATE
82
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Simulated Score
64
MORGAN STATE
77
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (+24.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 23, 2025 MORG @ LMU 56 - 83
Nov 23, 2022 MORG @ LMU 80 - 81
Dec 28, 2019 MORG @ LMU 74 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +176.8% more
Loyola Marymount: 6.2 vs Morgan State: 2.2
Steals (L5) +86.7% more
Loyola Marymount: 7.2 vs Morgan State: 3.8
Assists (L5) +37.9% more
Loyola Marymount: 16.1 vs Morgan State: 11.7
Rebounding (L5) +34.2% more
Loyola Marymount: 37.0 vs Morgan State: 27.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORG Score 65.0 56
LMU Score 82.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 27.1 35.0 / 33.0
Assists 16.1 / 11.7 19.0 / 13.0
Blocks 6.2 / 2.2 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 41.2 54.0 / 29.0
Free Throw % 62.2 / 71.3 61.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 37.0 / 27.6 38.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.2 / 3.8 10.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 14.7 13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORG
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
LMU Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORG Advantage
14-12-1 (53.8%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
LMU
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7% Total +/-: +2.5
LMU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LMU
MORG
LMU
MORG
ML
53% 17-15
50% 14-14
50% 16-16
58% 14-10
ATS
47% 15-17
50% 14-14
50% 16-16
58% 14-10
TTL
62% 20-12
50% 14-14
100% 32-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jalen Shelley Compares Texas A&M Basketball's Press to Minnesota…
aggieswire 4 days, 12 hours ago
UCLA's Unlikely Heroes: TaShawn James, Jalen Woods, and Semaj Mo…
si 5 days, 11 hours ago
Northwestern Opens Ryan Field with Record-Breaking Debut Against…
si 6 days ago
Lions Edge Jets 31-24: Gibbs' Hat Trick, TeSlaa's Breakout, and …
si 1 week, 4 days ago
Lions' Draft Radar: Five College Standouts to Watch in Week 4
si 1 week, 5 days ago