Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Suns LAL @ PHX

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

19-8  |  Road

108
FINAL
Tue, Dec 23 • 9:00 PM ET
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View Odds Details →

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

15-13  |  Home

132
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
SUNS
0%
LAKERS --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
201.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Phoenix)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

24.2%

Suns Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)

LAL By 1-7 points

15.3%

LAL By 8-14 points

5.8%

PHX By 1-7 points

26.2%

PHX By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
97
LOS ANGELES
104
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
108
LOS ANGELES
115
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Suns Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Suns (-6) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Suns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u227.5 Loss
Proj Total: 201.0
D
Sim u227.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 PHX @ LAL 73 - 101
Feb 26, 2026 LAL @ PHX 110 - 113
Dec 23, 2025 LAL @ PHX 108 - 132
Dec 14, 2025 LAL @ PHX 116 - 114
Dec 1, 2025 PHX @ LAL 125 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +73.0% more
Phoenix: 12.5 vs Los Angeles: 7.2
Turnovers (L5) +27.0% more
Phoenix: 15.4 vs Los Angeles: 12.1
Blocks (L5) +8.5% more
Phoenix: 4.7 vs Los Angeles: 4.4
Free Throw % (L5) +6.6%
Phoenix: 79.2% vs Los Angeles: 72.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 97.0 108
PHX Score 104.0 132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.4 / 27.4 41.0 / 38.0
Assists 23.2 / 22.5 35.0 / 22.0
Blocks 4.7 / 4.4 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 45.5 59.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 79.2 / 72.6 90.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 39.1 / 45.7 38.0 / 38.0
Steals 12.5 / 7.2 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.4 / 12.1 14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
LAL
PHX
LAL
ML
57% 60-45
61% 68-43
51% 45-43
54% 49-42
ATS
58% 59-43-3
61% 67-43-1
51% 45-43
54% 49-42
TTL
59% 61-42-2
61% 66-43-2
100% 88-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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