TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
17-13 | Road
112
MIAMI
HEATMIA
15-14 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
HEAT
0%
RAPTORS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
TOR By 1-7 points
23.0%
TOR By 8-14 points
12.2%
MIA By 1-7 points
26.8%
MIA By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
113
TORONTO
Miami
115
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Toronto
107
TORONTO
Miami
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o227.5
Loss
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 9, 2026
MIA @ TOR
114 - 128
Apr 7, 2026
MIA @ TOR
95 - 121
Dec 23, 2025
TOR @ MIA
112 - 91
Dec 15, 2025
TOR @ MIA
106 - 96
Feb 21, 2025
MIA @ TOR
120 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+13.4% more
Miami: 45.8
vs
Toronto: 40.3
Steals (L5)
+9.1% more
Miami: 6.9
vs
Toronto: 6.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.7%
Miami: 38.7%
vs
Toronto: 33.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Miami: 44.5%
vs
Toronto: 42.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
113.0
112
MIA Score
115.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 33.0
27.0 / 37.0
Assists
25.1 / 27.5
18.0 / 29.0
Blocks
3.6 / 5.0
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 42.5
40.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
74.7 / 76.6
85.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
45.8 / 40.3
40.0 / 50.0
Steals
6.9 / 6.4
12.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 15.3
18.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
TOR
MIA
TOR
ML
48%
46-50
55%
57-47
59%
48-34
55%
48-39
ATS
51%
49-47
61%
62-40-2
59%
48-34
55%
48-39
TTL
59%
57-39
60%
62-42
100%
82-0
100%
87-0
Contextual Game News
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
Chicago Bulls Edge Phoenix Suns 124-117 in Preseason Opener
Mike Breen Issues Apology After LeBron James Shoots Down Embiid …
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…