NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
8-22 | Road
118
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
16-14 | Home
141
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
0%
CAVALIERS
100%
PELICANS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
NO By 1-7 points
27.2%
NO By 8-14 points
23.0%
CLE By 1-7 points
18.6%
CLE By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
109
NEW ORLEANS
Cleveland
104
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
New Orleans
110
NEW ORLEANS
Cleveland
115
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pelicans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+9)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u244.5
Loss
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Sim
u244.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
CLE @ NO
111 - 106
Dec 23, 2025
NO @ CLE
118 - 141
Nov 20, 2024
NO @ CLE
100 - 128
Nov 6, 2024
CLE @ NO
131 - 122
Mar 13, 2024
CLE @ NO
116 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+34.2% more
New Orleans: 3.7
vs
Cleveland: 2.4
Rebounding (L5)
+15.5% more
New Orleans: 48.0
vs
Cleveland: 40.6
Assists (L5)
+11.4% more
Cleveland: 30.4
vs
New Orleans: 27.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.0%
Cleveland: 39.8%
vs
New Orleans: 30.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
109.0
118
CLE Score
104.0
141
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.8 / 30.8
41.0 / 42.0
Assists
30.4 / 27.3
40.0 / 26.0
Blocks
2.4 / 3.7
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 49.0
53.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
87.6 / 84.8
82.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
40.6 / 48.0
49.0 / 43.0
Steals
8.9 / 9.0
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 13.9
13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
NO
CLE
NO
ML
60%
69-46
62%
98-61
56%
55-44
58%
48-35
ATS
67%
75-37-3
68%
107-51-1
56%
55-44
58%
48-35
TTL
59%
68-47
75%
119-40
100%
99-0
100%
83-0
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