DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
21-7 | Road
130
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
11-19 | Home
131
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
MAVERICKS
100%
NUGGETS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
209.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DEN By 1-7 points
27.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
20.1%
DAL By 1-7 points
21.6%
DAL By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
106
DENVER
Dallas
103
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Denver
112
DENVER
Dallas
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Mavericks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u235.5
Loss
Proj Total: 209.0
D
Sim
u235.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
DAL @ DEN
135 - 142
Jan 14, 2026
DEN @ DAL
118 - 109
Dec 23, 2025
DEN @ DAL
130 - 131
Dec 1, 2025
DAL @ DEN
131 - 121
Jan 14, 2025
DEN @ DAL
118 - 99
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+15.1%
Denver: 42.5%
vs
Dallas: 27.4%
Steals (L5)
+14.4% more
Denver: 8.2
vs
Dallas: 7.0
Assists (L5)
+12.8% more
Denver: 30.1
vs
Dallas: 26.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.4%
Denver: 78.6%
vs
Dallas: 73.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
106.0
130
DAL Score
103.0
131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.4 / 42.5
41.0 / 49.0
Assists
26.3 / 30.1
34.0 / 39.0
Blocks
7.1 / 4.2
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 49.8
57.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
73.2 / 78.6
93.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
49.3 / 43.6
36.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.0 / 8.2
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
16.2 / 11.7
11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
DEN
DAL
DEN
ML
62%
63-39
54%
57-48
54%
44-37
55%
47-39
ATS
67%
68-34
63%
65-38-2
54%
44-37
55%
47-39
TTL
59%
60-41-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
81-0
100%
86-0
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