BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
17-14-4 | Road
3
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
18-13-4 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Alex Lyon
#34 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon | None-None | 1.98 | 0.923 | -- |
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 2.97 | 0.880 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.98 Ldr
GAA
2.97
0.923 Ldr
Save %
0.880
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
SENATORS
0%
SABRES
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
BUF By 1 goal
12.1%
BUF By 2-3 goals
9.3%
OTT By 1 goal
19.7%
OTT By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Senators
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Senators
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Senators (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Senators (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
BUF @ OTT
1 - 4
Dec 23, 2025
BUF @ OTT
3 - 2
Oct 15, 2025
OTT @ BUF
4 - 8
Apr 1, 2025
BUF @ OTT
5 - 2
Mar 25, 2025
OTT @ BUF
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+28.8% more
Ottawa: 24.4
vs
Buffalo: 18.9
Power Play % (L5)
+27.0%
Ottawa: 40.3%
vs
Buffalo: 13.3%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+15.7% more
Ottawa: 29.3
vs
Buffalo: 25.3
Faceoff % (L5)
+8.6%
Ottawa: 51.9%
vs
Buffalo: 43.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
2.0
3
OTT Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.3 / 18.4
9.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
51.9 / 43.3
56.3 / 43.8
Hits
24.4 / 18.9
19.0 / 15.0
Power Play %
40.3 / 13.3
33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.3 / 25.3
26.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
5.3 / 6.1
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
BUF
OTT
BUF
ML
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
TTL
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
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