DETROIT
PISTONSDET
22-6 | Road
110
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
12-16 | Home
102
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
PISTONS
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
201.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around POR +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)
DET By 1-7 points
27.2%
DET By 8-14 points
23.0%
POR By 1-7 points
18.6%
POR By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
103
DETROIT
Portland
98
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
Detroit
105
DETROIT
Portland
112
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pistons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trail Blazers (+6)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u234.5
Win
Proj Total: 201.0
D
Sim
u234.5
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 22, 2025
DET @ POR
110 - 102
Dec 5, 2025
POR @ DET
116 - 122
Mar 9, 2025
DET @ POR
119 - 112
Jan 6, 2025
POR @ DET
115 - 118
Feb 8, 2024
DET @ POR
128 - 122
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+27.9% more
Detroit: 12.2
vs
Portland: 8.8
Blocks (L5)
+24.7% more
Detroit: 6.4
vs
Portland: 4.8
Rebounding (L5)
+16.3% more
Detroit: 53.2
vs
Portland: 44.5
Turnovers (L5)
+23.9% more
Portland: 19.4
vs
Detroit: 15.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
103.0
110
POR Score
98.0
102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 27.6
22.0 / 23.0
Assists
24.3 / 25.1
21.0 / 28.0
Blocks
4.8 / 6.4
6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 45.2
45.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
73.6 / 73.7
67.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
44.5 / 53.2
38.0 / 48.0
Steals
8.8 / 12.2
6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
19.4 / 15.6
19.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
DET
POR
DET
ML
53%
56-49
55%
64-53
55%
49-40
49%
47-49
ATS
62%
65-39-1
53%
60-54-3
55%
49-40
49%
47-49
TTL
56%
58-46-1
60%
70-46-1
100%
89-0
100%
96-0
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