INDIANA
PACERSIND
6-22 | Road
95
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
17-11 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
CELTICS
100%
PACERS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
12.2%
IND By 8-14 points
23.0%
BOS By 1-7 points
3.3%
BOS By 8-14 points
0.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
115
INDIANA
Boston
98
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Indiana
117
INDIANA
Boston
112
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (-12)
Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Pacers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u225.5
Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Sim
u225.5
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
IND @ BOS
104 - 119
Jan 12, 2026
BOS @ IND
96 - 98
Dec 26, 2025
BOS @ IND
140 - 122
Dec 22, 2025
IND @ BOS
95 - 103
Dec 29, 2024
IND @ BOS
123 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+9.3% more
Indiana: 5.8
vs
Boston: 5.3
Assists (L5)
+9.0% more
Indiana: 24.5
vs
Boston: 22.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.8%
Boston: 36.5%
vs
Indiana: 28.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Boston: 48.2%
vs
Indiana: 43.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
115.0
95
BOS Score
98.0
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.5 / 28.7
30.0 / 32.0
Assists
22.3 / 24.5
19.0 / 19.0
Blocks
5.3 / 5.8
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 43.6
43.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
79.9 / 79.5
84.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
46.1 / 43.9
49.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.6 / 7.1
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 12.4
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
IND
BOS
IND
ML
57%
61-46
48%
47-50
53%
47-41
54%
45-38
ATS
59%
61-43-3
59%
57-40
53%
47-41
54%
45-38
TTL
56%
60-47
54%
52-45
100%
88-0
100%
83-0
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