Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Nuggets UTAH @ DEN

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

10-17  |  Road

112
FINAL
Mon, Dec 22 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

20-7  |  Home

135
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
JAZZ --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
197.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Denver)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

46.0%

Nuggets Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

UTAH By 1-7 points

24.3%

UTAH By 8-14 points

13.7%

DEN By 1-7 points

26.2%

DEN By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
98
UTAH
99
DENVER
Simulated Score
120
UTAH
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jazz Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nuggets (+13) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Jazz (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u250.5 Win
Proj Total: 197.0
D
Sim u250.5 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 DEN @ UTAH 130 - 117
Mar 27, 2026 UTAH @ DEN 129 - 135
Mar 2, 2026 DEN @ UTAH 128 - 125
Dec 22, 2025 UTAH @ DEN 112 - 135
Mar 28, 2025 UTAH @ DEN 93 - 129
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.0% more
Denver: 8.3 vs Utah: 6.4
Blocks (L5) +14.6% more
Denver: 2.7 vs Utah: 2.4
Free Throw % (L5) +4.0%
Denver: 79.9% vs Utah: 75.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Denver: 49.7% vs Utah: 46.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 98.0 112
DEN Score 99.0 135
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.3 / 38.9 51.0 / 34.0
Assists 26.7 / 31.8 37.0 / 30.0
Blocks 2.7 / 2.4 7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.7 / 46.9 50.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 79.9 / 75.9 76.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 39.9 / 46.5 51.0 / 49.0
Steals 8.3 / 6.4 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 13.0 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
UTAH
DEN
UTAH
ML
54% 57-48
60% 96-63
55% 47-39
48% 40-43
ATS
63% 65-38-2
68% 108-51
55% 47-39
48% 40-43
TTL
54% 56-48-1
75% 119-39-1
100% 86-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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