Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Pelicans DAL @ NO

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

11-18  |  Road

113
FINAL
Mon, Dec 22 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

7-22  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
MAVERICKS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
201.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (New Orleans)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

30.9%

Pelicans Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

DAL By 1-7 points

18.6%

DAL By 8-14 points

8.0%

NO By 1-7 points

27.2%

NO By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
98
DALLAS
103
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
114
DALLAS
118
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pelicans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pelicans (-1) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u240.5 Win
Proj Total: 201.0
D
Sim u240.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 16, 2026 DAL @ NO 111 - 129
Dec 22, 2025 DAL @ NO 113 - 119
Nov 21, 2025 NO @ DAL 115 - 118
Nov 5, 2025 NO @ DAL 101 - 99
Feb 21, 2025 NO @ DAL 103 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +49.8% more
New Orleans: 9.0 vs Dallas: 6.0
Assists (L5) +8.1% more
New Orleans: 26.9 vs Dallas: 24.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.0%
New Orleans: 34.2% vs Dallas: 26.2%
Blocks (L5) +45.1% more
Dallas: 8.2 vs New Orleans: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 98.0 113
NO Score 103.0 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 26.2 24.0 / 30.0
Assists 26.9 / 24.9 28.0 / 29.0
Blocks 4.5 / 8.2 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 51.0 / 50.5 45.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 84.7 / 83.8 85.0 / 52.0
Rebounding 46.5 / 45.5 51.0 / 57.0
Steals 9.0 / 6.0 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 15.9 13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
DAL
NO
DAL
ML
62% 98-61
62% 63-39
58% 48-35
54% 44-37
ATS
68% 107-51-1
67% 68-34
58% 48-35
54% 44-37
TTL
75% 119-40
59% 60-41-1
100% 83-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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