MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
13-15 | Road
103
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
25-3 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
THUNDER
0%
GRIZZLIES
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
MEM By 1-7 points
3.3%
MEM By 8-14 points
0.6%
OKC By 1-7 points
12.2%
OKC By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
98
MEMPHIS
Oklahoma City
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Memphis
112
MEMPHIS
Oklahoma City
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (-15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u234.0
Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Sim
u234.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 9, 2026
OKC @ MEM
117 - 116
Dec 22, 2025
MEM @ OKC
103 - 119
Nov 9, 2025
OKC @ MEM
114 - 100
Apr 26, 2025
OKC @ MEM
117 - 115
Apr 24, 2025
OKC @ MEM
114 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+44.4% more
Oklahoma City: 6.3
vs
Memphis: 4.4
Steals (L5)
+32.2% more
Oklahoma City: 11.2
vs
Memphis: 8.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.1%
Oklahoma City: 85.1%
vs
Memphis: 78.1%
Assists (L5)
+19.7% more
Memphis: 29.1
vs
Oklahoma City: 23.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
98.0
103
OKC Score
115.0
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 36.5
38.0 / 44.0
Assists
23.4 / 29.1
20.0 / 26.0
Blocks
6.3 / 4.4
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 46.6
49.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
85.1 / 78.1
86.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
46.1 / 47.2
46.0 / 46.0
Steals
11.2 / 8.5
14.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 14.9
13.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
MEM
OKC
MEM
ML
70%
80-34
57%
59-44
48%
46-49
50%
41-41
ATS
73%
83-30-1
63%
65-38
48%
46-49
50%
41-41
TTL
67%
76-38
70%
71-31-1
100%
95-0
100%
82-0
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