NORTHERN IOWA
PANTHERSUNI
9-2 | Road
58
SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
10-2 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
GAELS
100%
PANTHERS
--
GAELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
112.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Northern Iowa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNI -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNI)
UNI By 1-7 points
23.0%
UNI By 8-14 points
27.2%
SMC By 1-7 points
10.7%
SMC By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Iowa
61
NORTHERN IOWA
Saint Mary's
51
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
Northern Iowa
63
NORTHERN IOWA
Saint Mary's
72
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Panthers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gaels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Panthers (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Gaels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 112.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 22, 2025
UNI @ SMC
58 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+54.2% more
Northern Iowa: 4.9
vs
Saint Mary's: 2.2
Steals (L5)
+31.4% more
Northern Iowa: 8.3
vs
Saint Mary's: 5.7
Assists (L5)
+24.6% more
Northern Iowa: 17.5
vs
Saint Mary's: 13.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.9%
Northern Iowa: 34.4%
vs
Saint Mary's: 27.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNI Score
61.0
58
SMC Score
51.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.5 / 34.4
20.0 / 35.0
Assists
13.2 / 17.5
10.0 / 18.0
Blocks
2.2 / 4.9
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.8 / 45.8
32.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
78.8 / 69.9
93.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
40.5 / 35.7
43.0 / 25.0
Steals
5.7 / 8.3
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 10.6
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNI
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNI
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -4.7
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
UNI
SMC
UNI
ML
56%
18-14
51%
18-17
82%
23-5
56%
19-15
ATS
62%
20-12
49%
17-18
83%
24-5
56%
19-15
TTL
53%
17-15
69%
24-11
100%
29-0
100%
34-0
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