MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
HAWKSUMES
4-12 | Road
71
TEXAS
LONGHORNSTEX
8-4 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
LONGHORNS
0%
HAWKS
--
LONGHORNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TEX -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
UMES By 1-7 points
0.1%
UMES By 8-14 points
0.0%
TEX By 1-7 points
1.4%
TEX By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Maryland Eastern Shore
55
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Texas
84
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Maryland Eastern Shore
58
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Texas
82
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Longhorns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Longhorns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Longhorns (+33.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Longhorns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 22, 2025
UMES @ TEX
71 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+63.2% more
Texas: 6.8
vs
Maryland Eastern Shore: 4.2
Blocks (L5)
+31.6% more
Texas: 2.8
vs
Maryland Eastern Shore: 2.2
Rebounding (L5)
+25.7% more
Texas: 41.7
vs
Maryland Eastern Shore: 33.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.0%
Texas: 33.6%
vs
Maryland Eastern Shore: 26.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UMES Score
55.0
71
TEX Score
84.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 26.6
32.0 / 40.0
Assists
13.9 / 16.0
9.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.8 / 2.2
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 45.7
53.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
74.7 / 67.8
74.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
41.7 / 33.2
37.0 / 24.0
Steals
6.8 / 4.2
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 13.6
9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMES
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -6.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
TEX
Advantage
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMES
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -6.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
TEX
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UMES
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +0.5
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
UMES
TEX
UMES
ML
58%
21-15
66%
21-11
56%
19-15
81%
21-5
ATS
56%
20-16
69%
22-10
56%
19-15
81%
21-5
TTL
64%
23-13
66%
21-11
100%
34-0
100%
26-0
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