Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pilots @ Gauchos PORT @ UCSB

PORTLAND

PILOTSPORT

7-5  |  Road

61
FINAL
Mon, Dec 22 • 5:00 PM ET
The Thunderdome
View Odds Details →

UC SANTA BARBARA

GAUCHOSUCSB

8-4  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
PILOTS
100%
📊
GAUCHOS
0%
PILOTS --
GAUCHOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
UC SANTA BARBARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (UC Santa Barbara)
PilotsPORT (-3.5) 0 GauchosUCSB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pilots Cover

0.2%

Gauchos Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCSB -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSB)

PORT By 1-7 points

0.1%

PORT By 8-14 points

0.0%

UCSB By 1-7 points

1.4%

UCSB By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
62
PORTLAND
91
UC SANTA BARBARA
Simulated Score
72
PORTLAND
78
UC SANTA BARBARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Gauchos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gauchos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gauchos (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Gauchos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 22, 2025 PORT @ UCSB 61 - 79
Nov 9, 2024 UCSB @ PORT 94 - 53
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +3.1%
UC Santa Barbara: 78.5% vs Portland: 75.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
UC Santa Barbara: 34.7% vs Portland: 32.6%
Assists (L5) +36.2% more
Portland: 20.3 vs UC Santa Barbara: 13.0
Turnovers (L5) +12.3% more
Portland: 15.4 vs UC Santa Barbara: 13.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PORT Score 62.0 61
UCSB Score 91.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.7 / 32.6 48.0 / 24.0
Assists 13.0 / 20.3 23.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.3 / 3.3 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 49.0 54.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 78.5 / 75.3 56.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 34.2 / 34.1 32.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.8 / 7.0 10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 15.4 13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PORT
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
UCSB Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PORT Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
UCSB
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.0
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSB
PORT
UCSB
PORT
ML
59% 19-13
48% 16-17
72% 23-9
82% 27-6
ATS
62% 20-12
67% 22-11
72% 23-9
82% 28-6
TTL
47% 15-17
55% 18-15
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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