Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Cavaliers AMER @ UVA

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY

EAGLESAMER

7-5  |  Road

51
FINAL
Mon, Dec 22 • 6:00 PM ET
John Paul Jones Arena
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

CAVALIERSUVA

10-1  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
EAGLES --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Virginia)
EaglesAMER (-3.5) 0 CavaliersUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

3.6%

Cavaliers Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

AMER By 1-7 points

2.7%

AMER By 8-14 points

0.5%

UVA By 1-7 points

10.7%

UVA By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
62
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
80
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
48
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
62
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+27.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 110.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 22, 2025 AMER @ UVA 51 - 95
Dec 22, 2024 AMER @ UVA 58 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +306.4% more
Virginia: 5.7 vs American University: 1.4
Assists (L5) +29.2% more
Virginia: 17.6 vs American University: 13.6
Steals (L5) +19.9% more
Virginia: 10.1 vs American University: 8.4
Rebounding (L5) +19.5% more
Virginia: 36.1 vs American University: 30.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AMER Score 62.0 51
UVA Score 80.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.1 / 40.9 39.0 / 23.0
Assists 17.6 / 13.6 25.0 / 11.0
Blocks 5.7 / 1.4 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.2 / 43.5 62.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 67.8 / 78.2 56.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 36.1 / 30.2 45.0 / 23.0
Steals 10.1 / 8.4 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 9.7 9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AMER
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
UVA Advantage
30-6-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AMER Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
UVA
17-17-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
AMER
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
AMER
UVA
AMER
ML
67% 24-12
62% 20-12
72% 26-10
62% 20-12
ATS
75% 27-9
59% 19-13
72% 26-10
62% 20-12
TTL
53% 19-17
59% 19-13
100% 36-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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