Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hornets @ Matadors SAC @ CSUN

SACRAMENTO STATE

HORNETSSAC

4-7  |  Road

88
FINAL
Mon, Dec 22 • 10:00 PM ET
Premier America Credit Union Arena
View Odds Details →

CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE

MATADORSCSUN

7-5  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
📊
MATADORS
100%
HORNETS --
MATADORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
HornetsSAC (-3.5) 0 MatadorsCSUN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

42.1%

Matadors Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSUN +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUN)

SAC By 1-7 points

26.8%

SAC By 8-14 points

18.6%

CSUN By 1-7 points

23.0%

CSUN By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
89
SACRAMENTO STATE
87
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Simulated Score
68
SACRAMENTO STATE
75
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hornets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Matadors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Matadors (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Matadors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o164.5 Win
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 22, 2025 SAC @ CSUN 88 - 100
Nov 16, 2024 CSUN @ SAC 79 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +13.5% more
Sacramento State: 11.6 vs Cal State Northridge: 10.1
Free Throw % (L5) +13.4%
Sacramento State: 81.3% vs Cal State Northridge: 67.9%
Blocks (L5) +8.5% more
Sacramento State: 3.1 vs Cal State Northridge: 2.8
Assists (L5) +67.8% more
Cal State Northridge: 18.8 vs Sacramento State: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 89.0 88
CSUN Score 87.0 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 29.4 38.0 / 33.0
Assists 18.8 / 11.2 24.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.1 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 37.0 52.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 67.9 / 81.3 77.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 45.7 / 37.8 44.0 / 33.0
Steals 9.4 / 7.9 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 11.6 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
CSUN Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC Advantage
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
CSUN
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.6
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUN
SAC
CSUN
SAC
ML
58% 19-14
57% 17-13
67% 22-11
87% 26-4
ATS
58% 19-14
73% 22-8
67% 22-11
87% 27-4
TTL
58% 19-14
60% 18-12
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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